Market Notes

Sam Mishra

Industrial and net lease acquisitions, underwritten through macro, capital and demand.

Sam Mishra
Exhibit: the same deal at three levels of access. Fully marketed, 40 groups looking, 2.5% base odds; a first call, 5 groups, 20%; the top of the list, 2 groups, 50%. Illustrative: base odds are one divided by the number of groups looking. Featured They call five groups, not forty. The first call comes at site control, when the fewest buyers can act. Read the capital map before there is a deal, and the conversions build a pipeline — one only capital that can commit early and stay through delivery can close. Read the note →

Exhibits

Exhibit: an illustrative NNN industrial deal bought in 2021 at $100M (5.5% cap, $75M senior loan at 75% LTV, $25M equity) reprices to about $91M at a 7.0% cap while NOI rises 16%. Refinancing at 60% LTV gives a new $55M senior loan, leaving a $20M funding gap and about $16M of equity. Oct 2026 · Capital stack The lease performed. The stack didn’t. Chart: single-tenant net lease cap rate vs the 10-year Treasury, 2021–2026 — the 10-year rose about 360 bps while cap rates rose about 90, compressing the spread from ~450 bps to ~180, the thinnest in over a decade. Oct 2026 · Net lease & rates The thinnest spread in a decade Exhibit: a distribution of net-lease cap rates clearing today, centered near 6.9%, with the cost of senior debt marked around 7.0% — deals clear on both sides of the debt line. Oct 2026 · Net lease & rates Deals clear on both sides of the debt line Chart: annual DST equity raised — $5.66B in 2024, $8.41B in 2025, $7.52B through September 2026, and roughly $10.2B projected for the full year, above the 2022 record of $9.4B. Oct 2026 · DST A record year for DST equity Chart: industrial share of available DST offerings rose from 22% in January to 39% in September 2026, while multifamily fell from 51% to 22%. Oct 2026 · DST Sponsors pivoted to industrial Exhibit: what each counterparty values in an off-market process — owners want certainty and timing, owner-users want capital for the core business, occupiers want long-term flexibility, developers want speed and execution. Oct 2026 · Sourcing What each counterparty values Exhibit: lease structures compared for a specialized plant and a distribution box — initial term, renewal options, purchase rights, lease structure and who funds the fit-out. Oct 2026 · Mission-critical What a tenant signs when it can’t leave Exhibit: a 2x2 for underwriting unrated manufacturer tenants — shadow rating (sub-investment-grade to investment-grade) across the bottom, how specialized the plant is (fungible to mission-critical) up the side, with four approaches in the quadrants. Oct 2026 · Mfg credit Unrated, not unpriced Exhibit: build-to-suit risks and the guardrails that allocate them — construction cost and delay, lease-up, and credit, each paired with the documentary protection that prices it. Oct 2026 · Build-to-suit The risks, and the guardrails
Earlier exhibits (8)
Exhibit: reshoring deadlines against the calendar — guaranteed infrastructure grant lapse, foreign-funding expiry, chip-fab credit cliff and tariff start dates. Sep 2026 · Policy Reshoring’s risk is the calendar Exhibit: two paths for exchange capital — a direct replacement property against a DST interest, compared on timing, diligence, concentration, control and risk. Sep 2026 · 1031 & DST Two paths for exchange capital Chart: cap rates on FedEx-leased industrial. Hubs FedEx is keeping or buying trade at 4.5% to 6.5%; older sites it is exiting trade at 6.0% to 8.25%. Sep 2026 · Tenants Same credit, different cap rates Chart: in-place debt costs against the cost of new debt for listed and private owners — the equity advantage is temporary, the debt advantage is structural. Sep 2026 · REITs Old debt is cheap. New debt isn’t. Table of four net lease platform acquisitions and what each one bought. J.P. Morgan: Trio Investment Group in 2023, the platform that has since raised $1.1B, 2.2 times its target. Goldman and LCN: up to $410M with roughly 80% in equity, buying the manager and the team that runs it. CBRE Investment Management and Tenet: $1.6B from Cerberus, buying origination across 26 industries. BlackRock and ElmTree: a $7.3B platform in September 2025, buying the specialist and then the build-to-suit REIT it advises. The order is the point: platform first, fund second. Sep 2026 · Capital formation What the money actually bought Table: three drivers behind industrial demand and why each outlasts a cycle. E-commerce, because order volumes do not revert when rates do. Supply chain resilience, because redundancy is a policy decision rather than a price decision. AI infrastructure, because power and land commitments run a decade. Aug 2026 · Demand Three drivers, one direction Table: three questions answered before an industrial site is chosen, and what each one fixes in the building — the market and distance to the customer, whether one site carries it or two, and clear height, bay depth, power and land to expand into. Jul 2026 · Site selection The questions come before the site Table: what a changing market dates on its own against what the same years make more valuable — a platform against reading what it cannot tell you, a financing structure against the habit of re-testing it, a passing headline against knowing which ones reshape a decision. Jul 2026 · Practice What dates, and what compounds

Commentary

All posts on LinkedIn ↗
Nov 2026 Off-market isn’t discovery. It’s access. Oct 2026 Where the stack breaks, capital enters Oct 2026 Measuring mission-critical Oct 2026 A market, not a number Oct 2026 Powered shells: AI adopts net lease’s oldest playbook Oct 2026 How I underwrite an unrated manufacturer Oct 2026 Rates moved. Cap rates didn’t Oct 2026 DST demand is running ahead of supply Oct 2026 The bond market is now one of the most important indicators for real estate
Earlier notes (10) Oct 2026 Off-market isn’t a channel. It’s a habit. Oct 2026 Build-to-suit: who carries the risk when reality differs from the model Sep 2026 The 1031 exchange market is becoming more institutional Sep 2026 FedEx is repricing industrial quality, not credit Sep 2026 Public vs. private REITs and the cost-of-capital gap Sep 2026 They bought the origination, not the assets. Aug 2026 The biggest risk to commercial real estate: a rapid rise in rates Aug 2026 The demand isn’t cyclical. It’s structural. Jul 2026 Buildings are fixed. The strategy isn’t. Jul 2026 Tools change. Judgment compounds.

Approach

The best deals start long before they hit the market. Some never do.

I’ve spent my career on the buy side of industrial and net lease real estate, from the first call to the closing table, building relationships over years with owners, developers and tenant reps. I’ve focused on turning those relationships into a repeatable sourcing engine that scales, paired with disciplined underwriting of the tenant credit, the lease structure and the real estate itself.

Keynote, Queens College Business Breakfast, 2026 — on breaking into commercial real estate investments. Watch the talk ↗

What I’m watching

  • How rates flow through to cap rates and exit values
  • Where capital is coming from, and what it’s chasing
  • Which tenants are signing, and the credit behind them
  • What gets built next, and who funds it
  • Where public and private markets disagree on price